By David A. Adenekan.
To start with, this currently raging war will not end sooner as expected. Why? “You only know the beginning of a war, but you don’t know the end of a war – ‘Ìbẹ̀rẹ̀ ogun ni a ñ mọ̀n, kò sí ẹni tí ó mọn ìparí ogun’ (a Yorùbá proverb).”
The Israel-America war against Iran may not be a swift one as asserted couples of time by President Donald J. Trump of United States. Conversely, it may not be like the first Gulf War, Kuwait-America against Iraq, under the military leadership of Saddam Hussain. It is pertinent to say, after 42 days of relentless attacks and military onslaught on the ground in Kuwait, then-U.S President George H.W. Bush declared a ceasefire on February 28, 1991, by which time most Iraqi forces in Kuwait had either surrendered or fled to safety.
Also, one of the reasons that shortened the length of the war was the decision not to advance the American foot soldiers that were already stationed in Kuwait to move into Iraq for combat actions, a step which could turn it to a “war of conquest”.
Methinks, the combatant countries – Israel-America on one hand and Iran on the other hand – are enmeshed in a war of attrition. What is a war of attrition? It is a military strategy aimed at wearing down an opponent to the point of collapse through its continuous heavy losses in personnel, equipment and morale, rather than decisive, rapid maneuvers. The goal is to outlast the enemy by exhausting its resources and the ‘Will’ to fight, often resulting in long, drawn-out conflicts.
To say the global effects of a war of attrition will further deepen the ideology divide – socialism and capitalism – between the two World Orders of the Western bloc made up of the United States, England, France, and Germany on the one hand, and the Eastern bloc comprising China and Russia on the other hand is to say the least. China and Russia, the two leading countries in today’s socialist economy have tacitly pitched their tents with Iran as her close ally to the extent that the two power blocs are covertly supporting Iran with intelligeńce, high-tech military technology, logistics and military hardware (drones and missiles) to continue the war against the combined forces of Israel and America.
On the other hand, the capitalist countries in the West, with the exception of Spain, have remained the close allies of United States.
Emphatically, this is a resurgence of the “Cold War” between the Western and Eastern blocs in this 21st Century industrial revolution and digital age!
In my strong opinion as a Political Affairs Analyst, if the resurgence of the “Cold War” between the two World Orders of the Western and Eastern blocs in the 21st Century is not properly managed, it may trigger off an unanticipated “Third World War” that might reallign and redistribute the world’s economic interests in developing economies, particularly in most naturally-endowed resourced Continents : Africa and Middle East – (The Persian Gulf).
Time will tell.
Also, that Iran territorial strategic location gives her a significant advantage over the Strait of Hormuz due to its geography, bordering the narrow 20-mile wide waterway, allowing it to threaten roughly 20% – 25% of the global oil supply passing through it is not to be wished away.
Suffice it to say, Iran’s vast knowledge in the use of ‘asymmetric’ tactics – small boats, drones, naval mines and coastal missiles – can practically halt the traffic of oil vessels without needing a conventional war. As of today, Iran has effectively closed down the Strait of Hormuz following the American-Israeli military strikes, causing an estimated 97% drop in maritime traffic and major global energy disruption. Though, there is not yet a total blockade, the Iranian threat and military operation have made insurers to stop the coverage of oil vessels – a de facto “shutdown” indeed!
Moreover, the economic global effects is the scarcity of refined petroleum products, with the attendant effects of long queues and selling prices rising astronomically as currently being witnessed across the world.
It is pertinent to say the world’s economy revolves around a steady supply of power and energy, and even a 25% decrease in the supply of oil, one of the key sources of power in our today’s world, will cause an economic downward slope in the nation’s Gross Domestic Products, GDPs. This is coupled with a spiral effect (negative) on productivity, inflation, and unemployment rates in the world’s economy.
Collateral to all the above scenarios within the realm of global economy, undoubtedly, Israel and America have the military might as well as the capability to “win” the war against Iran, but can America ever win a religious war that is apparently a ‘war of the mind’ from generation to generation?
Historically, religious war had been with humanity from the evolution of human history to the extent that, both the First and and Second World Wars had a strong religious undertones attached to them.
Both Christianity and Islamic religions are provoked from the womb of Judaism, the Abrahimic’s religious doctrine, but today the two religious are at loggerheads over supremacy of faith, and which of the Doctrines profess the true God – ‘Yahweh”, or ‘Allah’ or ‘Jesus Christ’ that Christians declare as God.
To the followers of Islam across the two main branches of Islam – Sunni and Shia – there is only one God : Allah, and other people that follow another God are assessed as ‘infidels’.
Also, to the acolytes of Jesus Christ, the son of God, the credo is : “For God so loved the World that He gave his only begotten Son that whoever believe in Him shall be saved and enter the Kingdom of God” – John 3:16. In other words, it is only those who believe in Jesus Christ that will enter the Kingdom of God. What a line of perdition between the two religions – Islam and Christianity – that historically had fought religious wars; and religious genocide still continue today between the adherents of Islamic doctrines, the Jihadist fundamentalists, and the rest of the World.
A classic example is the religious genocide that we are experiencing been perpetrated today against Christians and others by Jihadist fundamentalists across Nigeria.
Iran today is the most powerful and influential Islamic fundamentalist country in the Persian Gulf, having adopted political Islam as its ruling ideology following the 1979 Revolution which broke from the traditional quietism. In light of this fact, the killing of one of the foremost Spiritual Leaders of Shia in the World, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by a combination of Israeli and American forces is a “call for a religious war” by every Shia across the globe, particularly the Jihadists among them. The Shia population makes up to about 10% to 15% population of Muslims globally, an approximately between 200 million to 260 million.
Frankly speaking, the war is not going to be limited to a military war as we are going to start witnessing a high increase in terrorism, banditry, suicide missions, guerilla warfare borne out of a religious war across the globe. The menace will be perpetrated, particularly by terror groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf, the large numbers of Shia fundamentalists in Iraq, ISWAP, Boko Haram, Lakurawa, Ansaru terrorists groups, Fulani terrorist groups in Sub-Sahara Africa, most especially in Nigeria. Yes, the Israel-America war against Iran will be an emergence of a new World Order, an intense increase in conflict between the Jihadist fundamentalists and the rest of the World.
Let us all be reminded of a 2001 incident:
”At least 200 people died in Kano, Northern Nigeria’s largest city, during two days of anti-American riots led by Muslims protesting the U.S.-led bombing of Afghanistan – ordered by President George W Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attack carried out on American soil. Residents interviewed by telephone said the streets, littered with smoldering cars, were deserted as heavily-armed troops, using armored personnel carriers and tanks, patrolled the city. Kano, which has about 1 million residents, remained under a 7 p.m. to 6am curfew.”
(Culled from ‘The Washington Post News Report’ of October 15, 2001)
In the final analysis, the Israel-America war against Iran is a war of attrition that the end may not be in sight.
Let us pray in whatever way we believe that this war would not end up in a World War III because of the religious undertone and a great significant economic implication for the whole World.
Time will tell.
David Adeyinka Adenekan Is The Editor of ‘Shekinah International Magazine’ And A Media Consultant. He Is Also The Secretary of ‘Afenifere Diaspora USA’ and A Political Affairs Analyst. He Writes From Chicago, Illinois.
davidadenekan5@gmail.com.
Be the first to comment